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Post by daneaux on Jan 25, 2019 10:12:25 GMT -6
I'm faced with a difficult choice regarding a health issue.
My doctor recommends a procedure that carries a 5% chance that I will wind up dead or debilitated. Not having it carries a 1% chance per year of the same result.
At age 60, and given my family history, I might live another 40 years or so.
My choices are to have the procedure now or to wait and monitor my condition annually to see if it deteriorates on the same trend that it has over the last 15 years. Either way, I will have to have annual CTa scans.
Can any meaningful statistical comparisons be made from those numbers?
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Post by okie on Jan 25, 2019 10:39:14 GMT -6
6
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Post by daneaux on Jan 25, 2019 10:43:29 GMT -6
Thanks
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Post by drlefty on Jan 25, 2019 11:41:52 GMT -6
Well I dont have any stats, but I have an opinion. I think I would take the yearly increase with the option of surgery down the road.
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Post by daneaux on Jan 25, 2019 12:08:42 GMT -6
I'm considering that, but I'm not sure about going through life knowing that I have a greatly increased chance that I could die at any moment. There is also the possibility that if the condition worsens, the procedure could get a whole lot more complicated and risky.
There is also my horrible medical history of nearly dying from simple medical procedures.
Toughest decision I have ever faced.
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Jan 25, 2019 17:34:35 GMT -6
Without the procedure you get about 5 years before the chances even out. After that the odds turn against you.
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Post by x on Jan 26, 2019 0:32:17 GMT -6
Are there any scientifically proven steps you can take to mitigate the sliding scale?
Diet? Hookers? Yoga? Fisting Hookers while doing Yoga? More farting?
That said, you might have answered your own question. Monitor biannually if it doesn't murder you in the wallet perhaps. Then make the decision. What does your family think?
pssst. let me know what you decide via PM. I want to win the dead pool-I have okie kicking it next year with a perforated colon in a paddock in Kentucky.
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Post by daneaux on Jan 28, 2019 9:17:53 GMT -6
Without the procedure you get about 5 years before the chances even out. After that the odds turn against you. Thanks. That's about what I was thinking but it's been a long time since I had my one stats class. I guess it works like amortization and that's why Okie was so wrong. But like X suggested, the dynamics of the condition effect the odds. But as the odds apply to me as an individual, they will likely get ever so slightly worse as time passes. So in fairness to everyone, I'm going to formally announce that I am going forward with the procedure. That way everyone is making their wagers based on the same info. No insider trading here. |
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Post by daneaux on Jan 28, 2019 9:42:28 GMT -6
Are there any scientifically proven steps you can take to mitigate the sliding scale? Diet? Hookers? Yoga? Fisting Hookers while doing Yoga? More farting? That said, you might have answered your own question. Monitor biannually if it doesn't murder you in the wallet perhaps. Then make the decision. What does your family think? pssst. let me know what you decide via PM. I want to win the dead pool-I have okie kicking it next year with a perforated colon in a paddock in Kentucky. The first is an excellent question. There are some but they won't make the condition better, just less likely to kill me. This is a condition that won't get better than it is right now. Just so you know, this is the aneurysm that I mentioned some time ago. It has grown significantly in the last 3 years after years of very slow growth. Thanks, Trump. All of those suggestions are certainly worth researching for sure. I've already tried diet so that just leaves the fun stuff. |
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Jan 31, 2019 12:38:14 GMT -6
Okie is so wrong about so much that it's hard to attribute his wrongness to just one cause.
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Post by daneaux on Jan 31, 2019 12:46:43 GMT -6
Neither would I try to restrict anyone to just one.
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Post by okie on Jan 31, 2019 15:16:43 GMT -6
What the &%$ do I have to do with any of this?
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Feb 1, 2019 11:09:49 GMT -6
Reading your posts can cause aneurysms.
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Post by daneaux on Feb 1, 2019 13:01:10 GMT -6
Odds are either 6:1 or 1:6
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Post by okie on Feb 1, 2019 14:53:43 GMT -6
I got a polyp removed.
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