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Post by daneaux on Jun 18, 2020 8:26:53 GMT -6
The FED can buy both indefinitely to prop it up. Indefinitely? As in forever or just for an undefined amount of time? I really don't see us standing on a steep slope, just a slippery one. If you've ever actually stood on a slippery slope, there is a critical angle beyond which you really can't stop things. The force of gravity has overcome the friction that held you in place. Without something to hold onto, momentum will take over and you will be unable to stop. Grabbing at branches as they whizz by might work at that point, but you will get cut up and maybe hurt if you catch one at all. They when you get to the bottom comes the real fun. I wish I had had a smart phone in 1977 when my buddy with his brand new climbing boots learned how this works when hiking/drinking/tripping our way up a creek bed on Clingman's Dome in the Smokies. That would have been a textbook illustration of the difference between a slippery slope fallacy and a slippery slope argument. We had to traverse a moss covered rock face that a side branch of the creek trickled down. I went first wearing gum soled shoes that wouldn't hold much. I made it across by holding on to the mountain laurels at the head of the slide and then told him it was slick and he'd better do so too. But he had his cool new hiking boots and went across without holding on. He was doing ok, then all of a sudden, he wasn't. He slid slowly down about 30 feet into the 6 foot deep pool of cool, mountain water. There was plenty of time for me to get my I told you so's in. So in this analogy, the cool new hiking boots are a reopened society with virus fatigue. The mountain laurels are the masks. And the icy cold water, long hike back to camp and night spent alone, drunk and tripping in the woods with the bears were all the horrible things that came as a result of his arrogance in thinking he didn't need to hold on. Government services are already falling way behind with 1.5 million layoffs in state and local governments. Just as in the financial side of things, they are getting hit with a double whammy. They are laying off workers when they need to be hiring them. The Vinginia Employment Commission was already the most understaffed and inefficient government entity that I have to deal with before their workload increased by tenfold. Because their workload has increased by a factor of about 20, they have had to work overtime and accept untrained transfers from other departments. As a result, unless your application went through the automated system, you STILL might not be getting unemployment. And none of that was in the budget and has to be balanced out by the end of the fiscal year. Most states have"rainy day funds" which I don't know the details of other than to say that they are measured in days of state budgeting they represent and it's not that many. Plus, it's been raining for a lot longer than a day already without a hole in the clouds. I'm going to guess that those are being spent right now and are depleting. And there won't be any money to replenish them from the sounds of it. States are like restaurants, they are operating at half capacity. I'm really not a fan of slippery slope arguments either. They usually are fallacies but sometimes, you really, truly are standing on a slippery slope and it's not very smart to ignore the advice that makes sure you don't wind up wet, alone, drunk, tripping in the woods with the bears. |
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Jun 18, 2020 14:27:11 GMT -6
Church is unpatriotic.
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Post by okie on Jun 18, 2020 19:10:26 GMT -6
I gotta go to the protest. It cannot be helped.
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Post by okie on Jun 18, 2020 19:12:03 GMT -6
My sign: side one:If you’re not ANTIFA... figure it out.
Side : BLM
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Jun 19, 2020 5:47:08 GMT -6
What makes your "argument" a fallacy is the increasingly low probabilities of each succeeding step, all of which must happen, leading to such a minuscule probability; which means for your predicted end to come to fruition we would have to fall and tumble our way up a very steep hill.
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 6:55:25 GMT -6
WE can certainly agree on that. |
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 6:59:18 GMT -6
What makes your "argument" a fallacy is the increasingly low probabilities of each succeeding step, all of which must happen, leading to such a minuscule probability; which means for your predicted end to come to fruition we would have to fall and tumble our way up a very steep hill. ...as applied by you. More and more evidence comes out daily to support my argument that we are sliding down that slope. Denial that it exists is everywhere, including here evidently. |
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 7:26:39 GMT -6
www.vec.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/snapshot-11955-VASnapshotweb-April2020.pdfThis says that in 2020, the Virginia Employment Commission had spent over twice as much as it took in which resulted in a 20% decrease in the fund balance. This was in April, prior to the really big claims. What happens when that fund is deplinished and we are unable to pay unemployment benefits? That slope looks pretty slippery to me.
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 7:54:11 GMT -6
I just listened to the COE of Allianz say that there is a point where bankruptcy becomes insolvency, it is nearly impossible to stop after that and without a plan (which we don't have) that is a possibility. That sounds like a tipping point on a slippery slope to me. He also says that the Fed plan of cheap money and direct equity lending will only make things worse because it doesn't address the underlying problem that demand both for products and workers will be a very, very long time recovering.
The difference is that this guy knows what he is talking about.
It wasn't hard to find either. It came on youtube right after a report on Powells most recent warnings.
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 10:28:54 GMT -6
I gotta go to the protest. It cannot be helped. Where are you going to protest? It's been pretty peaceful here for the most part for the last 10 days or so with only a smattering of violence. Most of it seems to have been instigated by irritated cops and rednecks. But it might get really ugly here again. The black mayor fired the white police chief and now the black interim chief says they're going to take back the streets. The white cops are pissed and threatening to stop doing their jobs. Boogaloo and whatever antifa influences exist are stirring the pot as hard as they can. There are protests going on all over the city because we have things named after Confederate Generals all over the place. The Governor announces that he is going to take down the statue of RE Lee and the courts stop him, then make the temporary restraining order indefinite. Law suits are filed by the rich people who live in front of the statues of their heroic forefathers and opposed by the ancestors of the people they owned and fought a war to keep. Down Monument Avenue they are taking turns spraying the Arthur Ashe monument with White and Black Lives Matter tags. The Governor also declared Juneteenth a holiday for all Executive branch employees and has asked the legislature to make it an official state holiday. So, here in the capital, that frees up thousands of people to protest today. Be careful. I am confidant that you will exercise the high degree of restraint that you have shown to be your defining character trait. |
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 11:32:11 GMT -6
...but wow.
We don't have the President of the United States threatening us like you do.
"Any protesters, anarchists, agitators, looters or lowlifes who are going to Oklahoma please understand, you will not be treated like you have been in New York, Seattle, or Minneapolis," Trump tweeted Friday. "It will be a much different scene!"
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Jun 19, 2020 11:53:08 GMT -6
"What happens when that fund is deplinished and we are unable to pay unemployment benefits?"
You are assuming that it will happen that there will not be any backstop. There is always a backstop. Could be any number of things including cutting the budget elsewhere and redirecting funds, issue of a bond, help from Congress, or some other method. Just because you haven't thought of a way in your scenario, those things I mentioned all have a higher probability of happening than your slippery slope endpoint probability. True Baysian analysis would give probabilities that any of these actions would be taken given that your scenario had already occurred and then that would go in the denominator making your slippery slope scenario even less likely than it is. I was being generous.
"bankruptcy becomes insolvency"
Bankruptcy IS insolvency.
"cheap money and direct equity lending will only make things worse because it doesn't address the underlying problem that demand both for products and workers will be a very, very long time recovering."
OK. It isn't meant to address the underlying problem of low demand for workers or products. That is a fiscal side problem. Powell said explicitly that two weeks ago. But, now, how does cheap money make things worse? Riddle me that!
"The difference is that this guy knows what he is talking about."
Argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy. Hell, in Grad School I majored in ECON. True story. I traded FOREX for a living for over 8 years. I probably have as many Econ degrees as that guy who just finessed you with word salad.
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Post by daneaux on Jun 19, 2020 13:57:49 GMT -6
Yeah. The guy who was the CEO of PIMCO and now Allianz is an amateur. You can argue bankruptcy vs. insolvency with him.
You keep forgetting that in order for bond issues to provide funding there has to be a willing buyer. Help from congress relies on the same thing. Their ability to borrow more money. That is not unlimited. It is limited by the markets belief that the municipality can meet the obligation.
The remark about the guy knowing what he is talking about was a reference to my lack of knowledge, not yours. I'm certain that yours is better than mine too, but I'm going to stick with the opinions of the professional.
I wish I could come up with a latin phrase for the fallacy of pretending to know better than the experts.
Cheap money makes things worse because it only lasts as long as the world believes the US is the $%^. That time may be passing.
That is of course just my opinion based on what experts say which is a fallacy, though.
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Post by Mahatma__Ganhdi on Jun 19, 2020 14:35:53 GMT -6
"The guy who was the CEO of PIMCO and now Allianz is an amateur."
I didn't say he was. But the part you quoted is almost incoherent. Bankruptcy can become insolvency is like cash can become money.
"I'm going to stick with the opinions of the professional"
Why not choose to listen to academics?
"Cheap money makes things worse because it only lasts as long as the world believes the US is the $%^. That time may be passing."
This has been said for decades. But no one can make a compelling case for the possible replacements. It used to be the Euro, then the Yuan, and then it was the SDR, and then crypto...you get the idea.
"there has to be a willing buyer. Help from congress relies on the same thing. Their ability to borrow more money. That is not unlimited."
The Fed can buy it. We have come full circle.
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Post by okie on Jun 20, 2020 22:09:57 GMT -6
...but wow. We don't have the President of the United States threatening us like you do. "Any protesters, anarchists, agitators, looters or lowlifes who are going to Oklahoma please understand, you will not be treated like you have been in New York, Seattle, or Minneapolis," Trump tweeted Friday. "It will be a much different scene!" We rocked it! Big %^$ street wide ANTIFA banner... made the news... met some cool people. Nearly came to blows when a &%$stick said something to my wife, but he was seriously outnumbered and skunk off. Trump said he had millions of requests for tickets, but the BOK canter was not near full. He cancelled his overflow speech because well there was no overflow. He blamed it on the thugs. I’m a thug WooHoo! I will sleep well tonight. |
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